Analysis: Are Ultra HD Blu-rays dead on arrival?

Ultra HD Blu-ray is confirmed, but who's going to buy it? After all, we've got Netflix in 4K.

However, with TV shows dominating streaming services, there could be a place for a new disc format, especially since it's confirmed to have a 'digital bridge' that allows 4K movies to be transferred between a TVs, phones and tablets.

In Europe, especially, Ultra HD Blu-ray's real challenge isn't Netflix, but a collapse in disc distribution.

When was the last time you bought any kind of disc? Or even used a USB flash drive?

The world has gone over to the cloud en masse, with catch-up on BBC's iPlayer and streaming from Netflix and Amazon Instant now embedded in the home entertainment world. It's slowly transitioning to 4K, too.

It may at last be confirmed as a live format, but can Ultra HD Blu-ray make a dent in a market that's quickly being built around streaming?

Most presume the new format's main challenge is streaming, but it could be more cut-and-dry than that; the disc-selling business in Europe is in crisis.

"The disc retail business is collapsing," said Paul Gray, principal analyst at IHS DisplaySearch, speaking in front of 400 journalists at the IFA Global Press Conference in Malta.

"Finding any kind of discs from a video library or content catalogue is getting pretty hard these days," he added. "Typically the only place you can find Blu-rays or DVDs on sale is in the supermarket, where there's 20 or 30 from the latest catalogue."

Physical exercise

There is a reason for that; Hollywood is less actively marketing discs, as indicated by Paramount's recent deal with Universal Pictures to let the latter distribute its discs. For two rival studios, that's quite something.

Read between the lines: selling discs is not worth our while.

"Whenever a studio retracts from a market, it has the effect of sending a message to retail partners that physical, as a distribution platform, is being abandoned," says Gray. "This has knock-on effects throughout the physical distribution chain."

Hollywood thinks digital delivery is the future.

The knock-on of that attitude could well affect Ultra HD Blu-ray discs. Licensing of Ultra HD Blu-ray is scheduled to begin this summer, with a spokesperson at the Blu-ray Disc Association (BDA) telling TechRadar this week the products "will enter the market in the 2015 holiday timeframe".

The now-confirmed technical capabilities of Blu-ray are hard to argue with. Ultra HD Blu-ray will support data transfer speeds of 108/128Mbps, which is almost ten times greater than the 15.6 Mbps the HEVC/h.265 compression tech which allows Netflix to deliver a 4K episode of House of Cards.

When it comes to the ultimate in consistent, high quality home cinema, Ultra HD Blu-ray will be unbeatable. We know that – there wouldn't be any point to it at all if it wasn't designed to be the best.

New gear required

There are other issues with Ultra HD Blu-ray that could limit its uptake. The format uses new kinds of dual and triple layer discs that will hold up to 66GB and 100GB of data.

The current maximum a Blu-ray dual-layer disc can hold is 50GB.

Not surprisingly, no Ultra HD Blu-ray disc will play in current Blu-ray players; only next generation players will output in 4K, though these new products will play current Blu-ray discs. As expected, Ultra HD Blu-ray decks will talk to your TV; when Ultra HD Blu-ray content is inserted into a next generation player, it will automatically detect the capabilities and features of the connected telly and output the most relevant signal.

This applies to HD, and Ultra HD, the BDA told us, but would also apply to both High Dynamic Range (HDR) content on Ultra HD Blu-ray discs, something that some flagship TVs already available (such as from Sony) can handle.

Perhaps the BDA is hoping the extras it plans to include, over and above the 3840x2160 resolution, will attract home cinema aficionados.

HDR and High Frame Rate (HFR) content will both be handled by the new format, though crucially only if the film studios include it and compatible TVs become popular.

There's no guarantee about either; Deep Colour has been around for years and rarely been used.

"The technical capabilities of Blu-ray Disc, in particular its significant storage capacity and high data transfer rates, will enable the delivery of an unparalleled, consistent and repeatable UHD experience," says Victor Matsuda, chair of the BDA's Promotions Committee.

But it could be a less trumped feature of Ultra HD Blu-ray – and another brain-child of Matsuda's – that might just prove its saving grace.

Digital bridge

Details are scant, but the BDA did tell TechRadar that Ultra HD Blu-ray could include a 'digital bridge' which will allow people to view content across a range of in-home and mobile devices.

"Ultra HD Blu-ray may also include a digital bridge option to enable consumers to move their owned content from the disc to other devices such as a media server, mobile device, SD card etc. so they can enjoy their content throughout the home and on the go," said the BDA spokesperson.

That sounds remarkably like SeeQVault, a concept Matsuda – also chief communications officer at SeeQVault's licensing company NSM – has briefed journalists on before.

Supported by Panasonic, Samsung, Sony and Toshiba, SeeQVault promises ubiquitous HD on virtually any device, with time-shifting and transfer between devices possible via SD cards and USB sticks – all armed, naturally, with the latest Digital Rights Management (DRM) software.

The tech checks that each file has a trusted ID tag by consulting a remote server before allowing playback on a new device.

Whether SeeQVault is the basis of the digital bridge will become clear, but it's worth remembering bandwidth and data caps remain a problem for most of the world, and will do for many for years yet.

Besides, the chance to swap movies between devices instantly and without the need for WiFi is genuinely compelling for all kinds of users, particularly travellers and commuters.

"It opens new possibilities for users interested in viewing HD content on any screen – from four inches to 4K," Matsuda told TechRadar back in 2013. "Moreover, it is a critical element in completing the 'digital bridge' between current devices, 4K playback devices, Ultra HD TVs and the exploding mobile market".

From a global perspective on broadband speeds, does Ultra HD have an inherent problem that only a physical format can solve? If all smartphones are soon going to have 4K screens, it might do.

It's also worth bearing in mind not all format features gain traction; does anyone even remember the whizzy online 'extras' feature called BD-Live?

House of Cards in 4K...and then what?

The 4K revolution is, for now, limited to a couple of genres. It's either streamed from Netflix or being uploaded to the internet from GoPro cameras.

The choice is thus limited to a few TV shows and some bloke in a jetpack flying over Dubai. Such content is rarely watched twice.

The missing link is live Ultra HD TV channels – and particularly live sport – but it's hard to see how the Netflix model won't become the de facto way of providing Ultra HD TV owners with something to watch.

"The value proposition of discs, where you could buy it and watch it immediately, is vanishing," said Gray. "Regardless of what happens with Ultra HD Blu-ray, the retail channels are drying-up."

He's right, but consider this: when was the last time you watched a movie – any movie – on Netflix?

Netflix has the DVD boxset market wrapped-up, for sure, but movies? Armed with a 'digital bridge' and a library of recent movies to buy online, perhaps Ultra HD Blu-ray does have a place, after all.

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